February 09, 2010

Huckabee Fails to Attract Catholic Voters
by Deal W. Hudson   
1/11/08
 
The Catholic voter problem that surfaced in Iowa has followed Gov. Mike Huckabee to New Hampshire. In Iowa, Huckabee received strong support in predominately Evangelical counties, but his support fell sharply in counties with large numbers of Catholic voters.
 
There was no improvement in New Hampshire for the former governor of Arkansas. Sen. John McCain attracted the most Catholic support, 38 percent, while Huckabee received only 8 percent. In other words, McCain garnered almost five Catholic votes for every one going to Huckabee.
 
Huckabee did almost twice as well with Protestants as he did with Catholics -- but not as well as McCain, who received the most Protestant votes (40 percent). McCain nearly attracted the same number of self-identified born-again voters as Huckabee, 30 percent to 33 percent.
 
It's clear that Catholics, thus far, have not been charmed by Mike Huckabee. Some might argue that New Hampshire is too liberal for the former Baptist minister, but New Hampshire Catholics certainly are not liberal -- they voted for Bush in 2004 over Kerry, 52 to 47 percent.
 
So why is Huckabee failing to connect with Catholic voters?
 
 
 
In all of [Hitler's] years of absolute brutality, he was never denounced or even scolded by Pope Pius XII or any Catholic leader in the world.
 
Huckabee tried to distance himself from Hagee's beliefs but did not cancel his appearance at Hagee's Cornerstone Church. "I would certainly never characterize the Catholic Church as being pro-Nazi, never," protested the former governor.
 
Huckabee, who believes he has the right message for Catholics, must nevertheless be frustrated with his low level of support among them. In an interview with Reuters just before the New Hampshire primary, Huckabee talked about the appeal he thought his campaign should have for Catholics:
 
I certainly believe that Catholics are right about talking about poverty, disease, and hunger. Things I talk about . . . I think a lot of Evangelicals have not talked enough about it quite frankly.
 
Huckabee jokingly added that there were so many Catholics on his staff that "we need some Baptists in this bunch here."
 
If Huckabee can successfully address the issues of anti-Catholicism, he might find that his disconnect with Catholic voters is an issue of style rather than substance.
 
 
For example, Evangelicals tend to respond positively to strongly worded moral messages, while Catholics usually prefer moderated messages without any sense of moral condemnation.
 
 
McCain, and even Romney, have shown they can attract Catholics, mainline Protestants, and Evangelicals. Huckabee has yet to prove he has broad appeal.
 
Whatever the source of his disconnect with groups outside of the Evangelical community, Huckabee will have to fix the problem in order to win the nomination. The latest polling in Michigan shows Romney enjoying a slight lead in his home state (20.3 percent), with Huckabee (19.3 percent) and McCain (16.3 percent) close behind.
 
The only way Huckabee can prevail in Michigan is to garner a significant portion of Catholic voters, which he has been thus far unable to do. It will be interesting to see what kinds of adjustments he makes over the next few days before primary day in Michigan.
 

Deal W. Hudson is the director of InsideCatholic.com and the Morley Institute for Church and Culture.
 
Readers have left 13 comments.
   Quote(1) Catholics no different than the rest of the nation
January 09th, 2008 | 11:03pm
At least on the appeal of Huckabee, I think Catholics haven't warmed up to him particularly because the nation in general hasn't. I thought he gave a very poor performance at the Jan. 5 debates. Based on a variety of internet quizzes I was ready to believe that Huckabee could be my candidate, but after seeing him debate, I thought twice about that. I think in general pro-life Catholics haven't warmed up to any one candidate particularly because thus far there has been extreme reluctance to make life issues a matter for debate. Huckabee is the only one who even mentioned sanctity of marriage/pro-life issues (when contrasting himself to Obama); no one else wanted to pick up that thread of the conversation apparently. Almost as funny as the dead silence that greeted the question about energy conservation and confronting Americans with the reality that gas prices are not going to go down again, probably ever.

 Written by LeeAnn B
   Quote(2) Evidence Is Lacking
January 10th, 2008 | 11:56am
I think this has been exagerated to a significant extent. From the polling there doesn't seem to be a differenciation in the Catholic vote to a significant extent from the more secular vote. The larger factor however is that I would specuate fewer than 3% of Catholics are familiar with who Pastor Haggee is and that Huckabee appeared with him. Certainly, Huckabee needs to expand from his base though.

Another factor, particularly in Iowa, is that I think the "Fair Tax" has more popularity in the conservative, homeschooling Evangelical world. Romney's internal polling tracked that to being Huckabee's base. For many reasons, the "Fair Tax" will not gain traction in Catholic circles. A more anti-free trade stance would serve him well and with Catholic Reagan Democrats generally.

As for Michigan, I wouldn't discount the war and the economy. Huckabee's populism will help in a State that has quite frankly been in a 5-year depression. While there isn't zealous peace component of the GOP coalition, there is a more conservative view of war that hurts McCain in the Midwest. Huckabee's Israel posturing may hurt him, but I think he is viewed as the most moderate on foreign policy. I think I'll stop now since this is getting to be blog length.
 Written by M.Z. Forrest
   Quote(3) Deal Doesn't Like Mike
January 10th, 2008 | 4:53pm
Mike Huckabee is the only true pro-life candidate in the race. In addition, he is the only Republican who is not in favor of pure Darwinistic capitalism. I'm sensing an attempt to prevent Evangelicals and Catholics from coming together to support Mike Huckabee. I should clarify that to mean "practicing Catholics," b/c the problem is that people call themselves Catholic and pollsters and statisticians think they really are. Look at Massachusetts for crying out loud.
 Written by Danny
   Quote(4) I gave Huckabee advice on how to attract Catholics
January 10th, 2008 | 6:38pm
Danny, far from preventing Evangelicals and Catholics coming together, which I think is a great idea, if you read my column you will see I have given Huckabee concrete advice on how to reach Catholics.
 Written by Deal
   Quote(5) Dave
January 11th, 2008 | 2:28pm
I find the latest successes and interest in McCain satisfying. I personally was fearful that the general American public would rate him superficially, given his more experienced age, his somewhat stiff movements, etc. I am a conservative Catholic that believes dearly in the free enterprise principles with less government interference, in addition to a pro-life stance. Though my mind is not 110% committed, McCain seems to be positioned to best provide these, while creating a more unified, less devisive force in our country.
 Written by Dave
   Quote(6) NH is not a reliable indicator of potential national Huckabee su
January 11th, 2008 | 3:01pm
While I live in CA now, I grew up in NH and visit often. My family has lived there for the last 300 years: I think I know the place. NH has changed. Danny speaks a truth regarding "practicing Catholics" and pollsters: Catholic NH has actually become Northern Mass and increasingly represents the church of Boston more than anything else. M.Z. Forrest is also right: I've never met anyone else who is aware of any Hagee-Huckabee linkage. I suspect that more Catholics have heard their church described as the Whore of Babylon by the Baptists they know than ever heard of Hagee.
Huckabee should explicitly stress his respect for Catholics, identify with their concerns, and directly ask for their support in a high profile way. He has my support because of his absolute pro-life stance.
 Written by Deacon Frank Osgood
   Quote(7) What does Catholic/Christian mean?
January 11th, 2008 | 3:26pm
I dare say, far too many in this country think of their flavor of "faith" as little more than answers to questions on forms. This is evidenced by the many current Catholic Democrat leaders in the Senate and the House, who claim to be Catholic, but refuse to condemn abortion and same-sex marriage.

It wouldn't matter to these (which may be a fairly hight percentage) if Huckabee were the Pope's favorite nephew.

.
 Written by Phil from the Middle
   Quote(8) Huckabee & Catholics, con.t
January 11th, 2008 | 3:54pm
The key, as has been suggested, is that there are Catholics and practicing Catholics. For me, a daily communicant, I find Huckabee's message dead-on. He is pro-life and socially reponsible enough, but not to an extreme. I believe Huckabee's strongest leg of the Reagan triad, social/ethical traditionalism is far more important than the other two; economic prosperity and a potent, effective foreign/military policy.

As Catholic Christians, we are called, to preach and live the Gospel, and if that means to some degree fore-going making a buck, then so be it. If it means we lay off a "foreign entanglement", then that's "OK" too.

Rush, Hannity, the Weekly Standard, Fox News, Fred Thompson, etc. have been hammering Huckabee over the past few days. They are big believers in the primacy of the other two legs of the Reagan Coalition. Hence their unflagging belief that the rising tide will raise all boats. That is true to an extent, but "the poor will always be with us." Hence their outright attacks on Huckabee who understands the need to assist those truly in need.

I believe the Nation is at a crossroads and we have to decide what kind of people and political party we are. I liken Huckabee to Teddy Roosevelt who similarly shook up the GOP establishment. Change is tough, but sometimes you have to just get over it!

And consider this, what a clash of ideology if November sees Huckabee v. Clinton or Obama !?

Romney, Thompson and to a degree McCain as the GOP standard bearer would just be more of the same.

It's time for new blood. Huckabee for President.

 Written by Michael A. Thomas
   Quote(9) I agree that Deal doesn
January 11th, 2008 | 3:58pm
Deal, sorry but you’re the only one I hear dogging Mike “with charges of anti-Catholicism”; and I'm also sorry to say your advice seems to come from a more liberal Catholicism than I believe in.

I think the key issues today are abortion, gay marriage, and declining moral values. GOP candidates need to address conservative values not liberal ones. It is unfortunate that many Catholics feel the need to have the government take over caring for the poor and oppressed rather than taking this on as their personal vocation. Frankly we would be better off if we focused on raising the morality of the nation to the point that individuals rather than government cared adequately for our neighbor in need.

As for poling in New Hampshire, it's based more on the liberalism of the state than the religious breakdown.

You are right that Catholics and Evangelicals can come together behind Mike, but this should be because of his strong position on the social moral issues. The question is "are there enough Catholics with properly formed consciences to support those issues above the more popular issues?" I am concerned for Catholics who support pro-abortion and pro-gay-marriage politicians because of their belief that the government should do the work of giving for them. Many have rejected the views of the Church in favor of the views of their party.
 Written by Tim
   Quote(10) Go further
January 11th, 2008 | 4:37pm
Tim -

I'd like to add something. The issues you identify as key are ones I share as well, but I would encourage you and others to support Huckabee for reasons (including but also) extending past those.

Why? Because others - Romney, for instance - place high value on social moral issues as well, such as "family".

Huckabee's self-identified priorities are "winning the war on terror, securing our borders, becoming energy independent" (Wash Post). If our nation is not safe and independent, the functioning of social issues is irrelevant.

I say this not to downplay the importance of Huckabee's beliefs. Quite the opposite; they make me ecstatic.

And re Deal's solitary "dogging" of Huckabee -- I think it's an interesting angle at the very least. From his significant experience w Bush's election, Deal is equipped to know what is important.
 Written by Caitlin
   Quote(11) There is a great Catholic running for President!
January 11th, 2008 | 6:21pm
Just to keep you informed...
There is a faithful Catholic running for president, and his name is Alan Keyes.
He has been given many graces, and has great knowledge.
He deserves careful consideration.
He was not permitted to be in more than one debate, and his votes were not properly reported in Iowa.
 Written by Ellen
   Quote(13) Huckabee recognizes Catholic role
February 04th, 2008 | 10:51am
I heard Huckabee speak at a pro-life march in Georgia. He stated to the crowd that they were later comers to the pro-life movements and that Catholics had led the way. Then I nearly fell to the floor when I heard the next minister say he was tired of people relying on fAITHALONE AND IT WAS TIME FOR WORKS.
 Written by Chuck

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