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| "Hillary Clinton Will Win the Catholic Vote in 2008" |
| by Brian Saint-Paul |
| 10/11/07 |
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"If Giuliani and Clinton are the nominees, then Hillary Clinton will certainly win the Catholic vote in 2008." This is the opinion of a chief strategist behind George W. Bush's success with Catholic voters in 2000 and 2004. Steve Wagner, president of QEV Analytics in Washington, D.C., isn't happy in reaching this conclusion. "Hillary Clinton, in spite of her pro-abortion position, will present a vigorous social justice agenda that will fill the void created by the GOP candidates."
For Wagner, none of the major Republican contenders has any special appeal to the Catholic voter.
In a November 1998 article in Crisis Magazine, Wagner demonstrated that reaching out to Mass-attending Catholics was the key to winning their vote. This basic insight became the bedrock of President Bush's Catholic outreach in 2000 and 2004.
Wagner sees Catholics being on the "sideline" during the GOP primaries: "They will split along the lines of voters as a whole."
I asked him whether it's too late for a candidate to appeal directly to Catholic voters during the primaries. "Someone like Fred Thompson could announce his choice of vice president the way Ronald Reagan did in 1976 -- the right running mate could galvanize Catholic voters and other people of faith."
Then I asked him whether Rudy Giuliani has a natural affinity with Catholic voters. Wagner pointed to the example of John Kerry. "Kerry was punished for being a pro-abortion Catholic. Giuliani is wise not to talk about being a Catholic, or he will suffer the same fate."
In other words, Giuliani's ethnic identity as a Catholic will not help him very much, and it may hurt him with religiously-active Catholics.
Wagner believes Catholic voters are disappointed in the GOP, which makes them open to responding to the social justice agenda of the likely Democratic nominee, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. "Her message of helping the poor and those in need, in spite of her pro-abortion position, will be quite potent to Catholics when the GOP has nothing else to offer."
Clinton's social justice message will bring Catholic voters in her direction the way "compassionate conservatism" worked for Bush in 2000.
Wagner explains, "The Catholic discontent with Bush and the Republican Party is not about Iraq, or he would have lost their vote in 2004. It's about their failure to deliver on the promises they made to address the moral decline of our society. Iraq and 9/11 distracted the president and the party from addressing the core concerns of Catholics and other people of faith."
For example, none of the leading GOP candidates, according to Wagner, have talked to parents about the difficulty of raising their children in a hostile culture. They have failed to tap into the deep anxiety parents have about the future lives of their children.
"It's hard to say what Republicans are about these days. The GOP does not have an issue identity that Catholics are interested in buying into," Wagner says.
I asked him what factor is at play now with the Catholic voter that wasn't part of the two Bush campaigns. "Economic hardship," he answers quickly. "Economic pain is the sleeper issue of 2008 -- the crisis in the housing market, labor and industrial issues, high gas prices, this is all highly relevant to Catholic voters."
When I pointed out that Clinton's emphasis on social justice will address economic suffering as well, Wagner agrees. "It's quite brilliant, isn't it? She's not going to moderate her position on abortion, yet she puts forth a robust social justice agenda, responding to economic hardship, and Catholic voters will respond because of the silence on the GOP side."
We ended the interview with a discussion of the impact of a Giuliani nomination on the 30-year migration of Catholics to the Republican Party. "Will it come to an end?" I asked.
Wagner's answer surprised me. "A Giuliani nomination will interrupt the migration, that's all," he said. "His influence will not be irreversible. 2012 will be a whole different situation -- the new candidate can restart the Catholic migration that began with Ronald Reagan in 1980."
But for now, if Wagner is right, we face the prospect of a pro-abortion candidate belonging to a pro-abortion political party winning the majority of the Catholic vote.
If that happens, both parties can share the blame.
Deal W. Hudson is the director of www.InsideCatholic.com and the Morley Institute for Church and Culture. Also recommended:Rudy's Tricks | Mark Shea | 10/11/07
Has James Dobson Created an Opening for Mitt Romney? | Deal W. Hudson | 10/8/07
Will Dr. James Dobson Damage the Christian Vote? | Deal W. Hudson | 10/2/07
A Pro-Choice President Can End Abortion | Elizabeth Scalia | 9/19/07
A Pro-Choice President Will Never End Abortion | Mark Stricherz | 9/19/07 Readers have left 4 comments. It’s unfortunate, but I think this is the most likely outcome for the upcoming election.. Written by Catholic Priest from NJ I've got to wonder, why this would even be a possibility! What is it, that would prevent Catholics from stumping for, and voting for Ambassador Alan Keyes? He is, if I am not mistaken, Catholic... has perhaps the most stringent pro-family, pro-life platform of anyone running for office. I am mystified that Catholics cannot seem to grasp the footholds that God has placed for our feet. Hillary or Obama would be little short of voting for the Anti-Christ himself. Written by Phil from the Middle Phil is exactly right. There is no one that has the proven record like Alan Keyes. Unfortunatly, The Media pretty much left him out after the You tube debate on C.N.N. Now, that brings us to who's left. There is only one man that comes remotly close to Mr. Keyes and it's not Mitt Romney. I suggest that you find a copy of the Book of Mormon and then a copy of the Bible. Then open them up and start reading. I had a roomate in the mid 60's that was a Morman and his main book was Morman and his secondary book was the Bible. I am a Southern Baptist convert of 22 years. I am a devout practicing Ctholic and I've never been sorry for being the only one in my imediate family from choosing another faith untill now. I am quite sad to see how many Catholics are afraid to vote for a man who has proven beyond a doubt that his first book and only book is the Bible. This is another historic time in the Catholic chuech and people are so afraid to open their eyes and see what's happening. If I could take you back to another time when there was a man who was running for President and was a conviction to his faith and people were scared to vote for him because of which church he belonged to. My parents who were good Democratic Southern Baptist were afraid to take the step but they did and the majority of Protestants did and they elected President John F. Kennedy. It was the majority of Protestants that elected him not Catholics because there were not that many converts back then in the Church as there is today. I was in my teens and I remember that people in our Church as all over the Country were afraisd that they may be electing the Anti-christ but they prayed and trusted in God and elected him anyway. Now, God has presented us another situation to save the unborn and keep the sanctity of marriage before it all go's down to what the liberal Media wants it to be. This time it is the place of all good Catholics to vote for the other side and just like when all those protestants voteed for a man who had proven his devotion to his faith we need to vote for a Protestant Baptist Preacher. Believe me, I was raised in that church and he is far from being a Southern Baptist preacher. Although he has shown a devotion to his creator he is stepped beyond the guide line sof his Doctrine. If our preacher would have even been caught listening to that Devil music called Rock and Roll he would have been looking for another job. If he would have been playing a guitar to that kind of music he would have been looking for another line of work. I am saying a daily Rosary for the former Govenor of Ark. and if I'm wrong I know our Lord Jesus Christ will reveal to me I am. After all this his will not Mine. God bless all of you.  Written by Ricky Smith I think that this analysis is a little bit off the mark. While you may see some fraying on the edges as far as how the majority of Catholics will vote, I believe that social issues will not be shunted to the side as this article suggests. Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton. She is deeply polarizing and anathema in the so called Red State America. Written by David W. |
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